KATHMANDU: Nepal’s stock market experienced significant fluctuations this week, reflecting persistent volatility and continued investor uncertainty. After a sharp decline over three trading days, the market saw a brief recovery on Wednesday but failed to sustain the momentum, closing lower on Thursday.
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index dropped by 33.42 points on Thursday, settling at 2,682.29 points. This decline erased the 45.88-point gain recorded on Wednesday. Earlier in the week, the index had fallen by 45.93 points on Sunday, 12.84 points on Monday, and 6.32 points on Tuesday.
Last week, the market had also closed lower, losing 24.97 points on Wednesday and 15.93 points on Thursday. Over the past two weeks, the NEPSE index has consistently struggled to maintain stability, with cumulative declines pointing to a lack of investor confidence.
Investor Confidence Remains Low
Despite occasional signs of recovery, investor confidence in the market remains fragile. Analysts attribute this hesitancy to broader economic uncertainties and the inability of the market to sustain upward momentum. They suggest that while there is potential for growth, a lack of consistent investor trust has hindered the market’s ability to reach new highs.
The psychological benchmark of 2,700 points, seen as a key level of support, has proven difficult to maintain. Analysts warn that if the market fails to hold above 2,660 points in the coming sessions, further instability could follow.
Historical Performance
Nepal’s stock market has seen significant ups and downs over recent months. On July 16, 2024 (Asar 31, 2081 BS), the NEPSE index stood at 2,240.41 points before rising sharply in August (Shrawan), reaching 3,000.81 points by August 15, 2024 (Shrawan 31, 2081 BS).
However, the index began a downward trend in September (Bhadra), falling to 2,580.76 points by mid-month. In October (Asoj), the market showed signs of recovery, climbing to 2,742.88 points by October 15. November (Kartik) saw the index remain stable at 2,748.78 points, but December (Mangsir) has so far been marked by continued declines, with the index dropping to 2,682.29 points as of Thursday.
Outlook for the Coming Week
Investors and analysts predict that the market will continue to experience volatility next week, with the potential for minor gains. However, achieving sustained growth remains challenging due to the lack of strong investor confidence.
The all-time high of 3,199 points, achieved on August 18, 2021 (2078 Bhadra 2 BS), remains a distant goal for the market. Analysts believe that the market needs a steady influx of investor trust and favorable economic conditions to regain its upward momentum.
As the market struggles to stabilize, investors are divided between those looking to minimize losses and those seeking opportunities to buy at lower levels. Analysts emphasize the importance of identifying stable points for investment decisions, noting that the market’s future trajectory will depend on the balance of buying and selling activity.
For now, the NEPSE index remains under pressure, with its next moves closely watched by market participants.